Indian media is getting way too ahead jotting down plans for India – Pak war! However, for any defense analyst, the conclusion is “war? No way till 2019!” You must be inclined to know why?
First, Decisions of war are more political then military. BJP wont gain anything by waging war now, rather they are sure to lose more seats to BSP in UP with Muslim votes going completely to Mayawati this time. However, in 2019, if war atmosphere prevails, Modi is sure to get a second chance.
2nd Continuous neglect of Indian defense in Las 3 decades have robbed India off capability to deter China. If Pakistan is threatened significantly the china is sure to intervene. Getting back those capabilities will need at least another 2-2.5 year!
3rd Any war that intends to create two new nations of Baluchistan & Sindh needs international acceptance. There are 200 nations & we need dedicated effort of minimum 800 days to get 70% of them on our side.
4th Indian economy is about to start off to a high growth orbit. However, rural infrastructure & urban infrastructure still remains unplanned & underdeveloped. Any war increases risk on metropolitan cities manifold. If these are destroyed, the country’s growth engine stops for at least a decade. Smart cities & NREGA together can distribute this risk by creating multiple small growth engines for the economy. These will ensure even if main growth engines are completely wiped off, still the country chugs on its journey towards development. Another 2-2.5 years will at least allow these growth engines to start.
Hence, war is definitely a possibility, but only in 2019!
Current options to India are –
1. Scratching off MFN status given to Pak.
2. Calling of Indus water treaty
3. Banning all Pakistan/Dubai/Riyadh/Ankara based foreign portfolio investors participating in Indian stock market.
4. Stopping all funding madrasas from outside India & creating a homeland security infrastructure based on American system. FBI help might be taken to implement same.
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